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Where is the Ibu Qualifying Point System? Does a paradox bring it down?

Dov'è il nuovo sistema di qualificazione Ibu? Un paradosso lo affonda?
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Where is the Ibu Qualifying Point System? Does a paradox bring it down?

The Ibu Qualifying Point System, announced in september 2014, never entered into force. Why? Maybe a logical flaw creates a paradox which brings it down?


IBU QP GENESIS
In September 2014 Max Cobb, head of the International Biathlon Union’s (IBU) Technical Committee, announced the creation of “a new comprehensive system of qualification for IBU events, encompassing qualifying points, Nations Cup scoring, quotas for major events, and a Wild Card system to supplement those quotas”, as reported by fasterskier.com .

Max Cobb said: “We now have a really cohesive system that both is fair and supports teams moving up through the rankings if they are having good performances, but also really honors the performance of athletes from any nation regardless of where they are within the Nations Cup ranking […] It is more complex, but the complexity is being added in order to make it more accurate and a little more fair, […] the system really honors and respects the performance of the athletes”.

In November an entire section of the 2014-2015 IBU Guide was dedicated to explain this new system, indispensable to determine athletes’ eligibility and NFs quotas for World Cup, World Championships and Olympic Winter Games starting with the 2015-2016 season.


IBU QP DOES NOT ENTER INTO FORCE
Despite the announcement, there was no trace of the Ibu Qualifying Point System. The new system should have provided every athlete with a total points profile, based on race results, in sight of 2015-'16 season; instead, after every Sprint or Individual race, the IBU still publishes the old Percent Behind Report, which should have been replaced by the Ibu QP System.

This situation wasn’t underlined during 2014-’15 winter, when old rules were still in force, but the QP System’s absence is going to be a problem in the new season in which in which it should have determined wild cards (4 for WC, 10 for WCH) and athletes eligibility.

So the questions are:
1) Why hasn't the Ibu QP system ranking appeared yet despite its publication was announced?
2) On the other hand, why is the Percent Behind Report still alive?

The answer might be unbelieavable. Apparently, there could be a logical flaw in the system that creates a paradox which brings it down.


LOGICAL FLAW?
As we said, the system was created in order to link all Sprint and Individual competitions at World Cup, World Championships, Olympic Winter Games, IBU Cup and Open European Championships through this formula:

{[(athletes time/winner time) - 1] x 800} + Race Penalty

Race Penalty is 0 for World Cup races, while it must be calculated at Ibu Cup. And there's the rub, because it’s impossible to calculate it! Let’s see why.

Article 1.4.3.4 of the Ibu Event and Competition rules provides that: “Race penalty is the sum of the points of the three highest ranked athletes in the top 10 divided by 3.75. The race penalty for all WC, WCH and OWG competitions is zero (0)”

So no problem for WC, WCH and OWG. But what about IBU Cup and OECH Race Penalty? To calculate it, athletes need an Ibu QP profile, and they cannot have it because there is no starting ranking.

It might be said: “Well, in order to have a starting profile we can consider World Cup and Ibu Cup results of the 2013-’14 season”.

Right, but the problem reiterates. How can we calculate the Ibu Cup races Race Penalty at the beginning of the 2013-’14 season? Athletes have no Ibu QP profile. Should we then consider the 2012-’13 season to create it? No way! To calculate 2012-’13 Ibu Cup races Race Penalty an Ibu QP profile is needed, and it’s impossible to calculate it unless we consider 2011-’12 races, and so on. The system enters into a paradox.

According to the regulation, the only solution is to start from the last season where only the world cup was disputed (1987-88): with no need towithout the need to apply a Race Penalty different from 0, a IBU QP profile can be established, enabling, only at this point, to calculate the points for every season after that.

It’s an enormous task and maybe it’s also impossible to complete it. There is an high probability that a lot of Europa Cup (the original name of Ibu Cup) Race Results of the mid 90’s went lost.  


A POSSIBLE ALTERNATIVE SOLUTION
This paradox can be easily outflanked. Ibu can use a flat rate race penalty for all 2014-’15 Ibu Cup races. In this way it could be possible to create an Ibu QP profile for every athlete, that will be fixed during 2015-’16 by real Race Penalty.

However, we wait for clarification by the International Biathlon Union. Is IBU really so naive as to elaborate such a complicated system without considering its logical foundations?

It is as if a Formula 1 team had created a new car for the season and, after the official presentation, when the car actually had to phisically enter the race track, he realized that he forgot to install the ignition system alltogether.


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